2012中国龙年即将来临。在中国人心中，龙是呼风唤雨，腾云驾雾的神物，也有难以捉摸，变幻莫测的特质。龙年被中国人认为具有很强的运势。萧条减速可能是养精蓄锐的好机会，一旦突破艰难困苦，就会有更强劲的气势前进。当今世界政治经济大局，似乎也与龙年呼应。
2012年将是世界政治和经济不平凡的一年。欧洲国家政府更替，美国总统大选扑朔迷离，北非和中东地区政局风云变幻，中国党政领导层也将换届。政府变化将带来政治格局和政策导向的新气象，也会给经济态势和运行带来新的抉择和不确定性。欧洲债务风险危及多国，欧元面临严重挑战，全球资本市场震荡，发达国家财政状况恶化，经济衰退，前景堪忧。
国际经济与金融体系失衡，强烈的影响和冲击了中国经济走势。对国外危及出手救援还是坚壁清野？经济结构与发展模式转型？深化政治体制和社会管理改革？是我们在内忧外患形势下所面临的严峻问题。“保增长”与“控通胀”的微妙平衡、全球治理与中国在世界舞台的角色、“人口红利耗竭”、城乡和收入差距扩大、房地产价格大幅波动、地方融资平台风险，是我们不得不思考和应对的关键问题。中国经济增长的结构性桎梏难以打破，政府过度干预与市场功能扭曲，导致了严重的资源配置错位。内外经济环境的负面因素，给中国经济造成了巨大的困扰和压力，但也为中国经济结构转变提供了契机。清华大学中国与世界经济研究中心（CCWE）特邀国内外研究机构、公司企业和国际组织具有影响力和战略眼光的学术精英、政府官员和企业高管，就2012年相关重大问题共同探讨，提出相应的战略选择与政策建议。
欢迎有兴趣的老师、同学和社会各界朋友参与！
论坛联系：张旭川 6279 6901；zhangxch2@sem.tsinghua.edu.cn
Tsinghua University China and the World Economic Forum
2012 ? !
Time:2pm—5:30pm, January 8, 2012
Venue:Grand Lecture Hall, first floor, Weilun Building, School of Economics and Management, Tsinghua University
Language:Chinese and English (simultaneous interpretation is available; please bring an ID card for earphone)
Moderator:David Daokui Li (Director of CCWE)
The Chinese Year of the Dragon, 2012, is quickly approaching. To the Chinese, the dragon is a mythical, unpredictable animal that can control the forces of nature; and the Year of the Dragon is considered to be tremendously lucky. If all of that is true, then the recent slowdown in China’s economic development may prove to be merely a short respite before the economy’s relentless advance resumes. Will the current pattern of world economics and politics be a replication of the story of the Year of the Dragon?
2012 promises to be an extraordinary year in world economics and politics. The European countries face a shift in politics; the outcome of the presidential election in the U.S. is unclear; there is political chaos in North Africa and the Middle East; and the Chinese government and CCP will see a leadership change. The changes in politics will bring some fresh air to political patterns and direction, and will also bring new uncertainties and decisions to the world economic situation. Currently, the sovereign debt crisis in the EU has jeopardized many countries, with the euro facing serious challenges; global capital markets are fluctuating violently; the fiscal situation is worsening in developed countries; and concerns about a global economic recession are growing rapidly.
The imbalances in the international economic and financial system have sent powerful shock waves throughout China’s economic growth pattern. Many crucial questions have arisen: Should China lend assistance to countries that are in the center of the crisis or just leave them alone? How can China transform its economic structure and development mode? How can China deepen the reforms in its political system and social management? The deliberate balance of maintaining economic growth and controlling inflation; the role of China on the stage of global governance; the diminishing demographic dividend; the increasing gap between urban and rural areas and between the rich and the poor; the violent price fluctuations in the housing market; and the risks presented by local financing methods are all vital issues that have to be dealt with. The structural shackle on Chinese economic growth is difficult to remove, and excessive intervention from government and the distortion of market function causes an inefficient allocation of resources. The negative factors in the internal and external economic environment put great pressures on the Chinese economy. They also, however, provide opportunities for Chinese economic structural transformation.
The Center for China in the World Economy (CCWE) of Tsinghua University has thus invited influential academic elites, policy makers and entrepreneurs from prestigious Chinese and international institutions to discuss these issues, and to propose strategic and policy options.
Contact:
Betty Zhang, 62796901(TEL), zhangxch2@sem.tsinghua.edu.cn
[批准号2011020]
