简介: |
This seminar is focused on the key elements for a successful application of foresight methodologies (i.e. scenarios, delphi method, expert panels) to emergency management. Emergency events can be derived from the dynamic effects of nature like rain, earthquakes, tsunamis, among others, or actions conducted directly or indirectly by man. The emergency events are capable of generating losses of material and natural goods, and most importantly human lives. Preparing for such events or similar events is critical to minimize these risks by requiring that every risk event should be observed and studied so that preventive measures can be taken. Foresight techniques can enhance the understanding of emergency teams about the factors which are involved in the definition of an emergency plan and how different actors participate in it. Despite the important role of foresight in emergency management, there is a lack of academic research on how to generate and analyze a set of scenarios and how to integrate them in the development of emergency plans. In recent years, some studies have contributed to bridge this research gap with the application the CIA-ISM scenario technique for supporting collaborative scenario development in emergency preparedness. In this seminar, several examples of its current applications are presented for illustration. |