简介: |
Periodic fluctuations are common in the evolution of disease transmissions, e.g., seasonally varying contact rates, periodic changes in birth rates, and periodic vaccinations. In this talk, I will present our recent research on a large class of compartmental epidemic models in periodic environments.
The basic reproduction ratio and its computation formulae are first established. Then it is proved that a disease cannot invade the disease-free state if the ratio is less than one, and can invade if it is greater than one. It is also shown that the basic reproduction number of the time-averaged autonomous system is applicable in the case where both the matrix of new infection rate and the matrix of transition and dissipation within infectious compartments are diagonal, but it may underestimate and overestimate infection risks in other cases. As an application of this theory, the global dynamics of a periodic epidemic model with patch structure is analyzed in order to study the impact of periodic contacts or periodic migrations on the disease transmission.
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周培源应用数学研究中心
唐琳
TEL：62797063 |
