Understanding the implications of global change for highly mobile taxa such as migratory birds requires information on geographic patterns of occurrence across the annual cycle. Neotropical migrants that breed in North America and winter in Central America occur in high concentrations on their non-breeding grounds where they spend the majority of the year and where population limiting factors are often more severe. Here, we use eBird data to model weekly patterns of abundance and occurrence for 21 forest passerine species that winter in Central America. We use this information to estimate species’ distributional dynamics and how species associate across the annual cycle with climate and land-use change projections and public protected areas. Although global change is projected to have geographically varying consequences for these species, our findings suggest the most substantial implications will occur on the non-breeding grounds through decreasing summer rainfall and the loss of forested habitats through expanding cropland development. Public protected areas with low and medium protection status are more prevalent where species occur on their non-breeding grounds, suggesting opportunities currently exist to reduce near-term habitat loss during a critical phase of these species’ life cycle, which may prove beneficial over the long term as climate change progresses.

 

Dr.Frank A. La Sorte is a Research Associate at the Cornell Lab of Ornithology at Cornell University. Prior to working at Cornell, he conducted postdoctoral work at Yale University, University of California, San Diego, and the University of Missouri - Columbia. He earned his PhD in ecology and evolutionary biology from New Mexico State University and a Master’s Degree in wildlife ecology from the University of Arizona. Dr. La Sorte has research interests in the macroecology, biogeography and conservation of plants and birds within the context of global environmental change. A current focus has been to document the patterns and drivers of broad-scale migration strategies in terrestrial birds, with the goal of improving our understanding of the implications of global change for migratory bird populations. Dr. La Sorte serves on the editorial boards of Condor: Ornithological Applications, Frontiers of Biogeography, and the Journal of Ornithology.