清华论坛第88讲

演讲题目：Where on Earth Are We Going: Existential Crisis or Disruptive Transformation?  地球驶向何方：危机还是转变？

演讲嘉宾：Hans Joachim Schellnhuber  

德国国家科学院院士、美国国家科学院院士

时间：2019年6月24日10:00

地点：清华大学主楼接待厅

报名链接：https://www.wjx.cn/jq/41603488.aspx

个人简介Biography：

德国国家科学院院士、美国国家科学院院士Hans Joachim Schellnhuber教授是全球变化和地球系统科学方向的学术领军人物。Schellnhuber教授在地球系统模拟、全球变化的影响与应对等方向多次取得世界级成就。Schellnhuber教授于1992年创建了波茨坦气候影响研究中心并任中心主任，该中心现已成为拥有400名研究人员的德国国家核心研究机构，为德国总理和欧盟委员会提供全球变化和可持续发展方面的科学支持与战略建议。Hans Joachim Schellnhuber现任德国全球变化咨询委员会主席，德国国家科学院气候、能源与环境委员会主席，以及拥有美国国家科学院等8个科学院院士头衔。2007以政府间气候变化委员会（IPCC）领衔作者身份被授予诺贝尔和平奖（2007），由于Schellnhuber教授的杰出贡献，被德国总统克里斯蒂安•乌尔夫亲授象征德国最高科学荣誉的德意志联邦共和国勋章（Order of Merit），被英女王伊丽莎白二世亲授英国帝国勋章。

Hans Joachim (“John”) Schellnhuber studied physics and mathematics and completed his doctorate at the University of Regensburg. After a postdoctoral position at the Institute for Theoretical Physics, Santa Barbara, he held professorships at the Universities of Oldenburg and Potsdam, as well as at the University of East Anglia, Norwich. In addition, he held numerous visiting professorships (e.g., University of California, Santa Cruz; Oxford University; and Santa Fe Institute).

As founding director of PIK, he led the institute from 1991 until 2018. From 2001 until 2005, he was also research director at the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research in Great Britain. Among other learned societies, he is a member of the Pontifical Academy of Sciences, the German National Academy Leopoldina, the US National Academy of Sciences, and the Academia Europaea. He received, inter alia, the German Environment Prize (2007), the Volvo Environment Prize (2011) and the Blue Planet Prize (2017).

He served as scientific advisor to a number of eminent political and religious leaders, including the German Chancellor Angela Merkel, European Commission President José Manuel Barroso and Pope Francis. He has been a member of the German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU) ever since its establishment in 1992. He also contributed in various ways to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) that received the Nobel Peace Prize in 2007.

For his achievements, Queen Elizabeth II named Hans Joachim Schellnhuber a Commander of the Most Excellent Order of the British Empire (2004). He was also awarded the Order of Merit of the State of Brandenburg (2008) as well as the Order of Merit of the Federal Republic of Germany (2011).

内容简介Abstract：

人类社会正处在环境巨变的十字路口，人类活动造成的全球变化已经威胁到人类文明的物质基础。Schellnhuber教授的报告将带领我们直面这些挑战，包括地球可能重新回到一千五百万年前的“热屋”状态的威胁，应对这种挑战要求全球经济在2050年实现完全脱碳，发达国家的脱碳甚至要更加提前。然而，促成这一根本性转变的关键策略离不开我们最强大的盟友的支持：保卫和加强我们的自然生态系统。

As reflected in the title, this lecture will provide evidence that humanity is at a crossroads now, where fundamental decisions about the future course have to be made. Global environmental change, in particular anthropogenic global warming, is threatening the natural basis of our civilization. I will review the latest state of the scientific art regarding the risks we are facing, including the possibility of our planet sliding into a “hothouse state”, similar to the one that existed some 15 million years ago. If this is to be averted, the global economy needs to be decarbonized by 2050 at the latest, with the industrialized countries moving even quicker. An appropriate roadmap will be sketched. However, this disruptive transformation must be accompanied by a powerful strategy to safeguard the natural ecosystems worldwide, which are our strongest allies in the fight for sustainability.