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报告题目:
全球变化科学紫荆论坛第317期:Does global food trade increase or decrease land and water scarcity?
 报告人:
Prof. William Allen Perrie
Bedford Institute of Oceanography
报告时间:
2019-07-22 10:00
报告地点:
清华大学蒙民伟科技大楼南楼S818
主办单位:
地球系统科学系
  简介:

The Arctic has experienced dramatic changes over recent decades, and is projected to have ice-free summers by the 2050s in the future climate scenarios. It has been suggested that these changes in environmental conditions have led to an increase in frequencies and intensities of extreme cyclones and related changes in air-sea interactions and upper ocean conditions. Coarse resolution GCMs tend to underestimate the number and intensities of these small-scale systems, and therefore lead to deficiencies in their estimates for the poleward energy transport into the Arctic, and associated surface heat fluxes and radiation associated with clouds. In our study, we conduct simulations of the Arctic weather and climatology using a high-resolution implementation of the Polar WRF3.6, driven by the coarse resolution climate model HadGEM-ES2 outputs, following IPCC5 climate scenarios RCP8.5 and RCP4.5. By end-of-the-century, the (summer) Arctic is expected to be largely ice-free; and surface circulation systems are expected to exhibit different responses in all four seasons, as shown by our simulations. We discuss the atmosphere and ocean circulation responses to cyclones, estimate the changes in the frequency and intensity of related weather systems, and also explore the possible related mechanisms, like wave – ocean coupling etc. Finally, we describe satellite remotely sensed observations collected in field experiments related to this work.

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