报告摘要: Although many try, no one can predict the future. However, history
can provide insight about what may be successful and what may be only
partially successful or not successful at all based on successes and lack of
successes in the past. This seminar evolves from a historical overview of
two-way wireless communications to suggestions about which wireless
applications are likely to be successful in the future and which are not
likely to succeed. The high level presentation covers a broad range of
topics but does not delve into technical details. This 1.5 hour seminar is
based on an invited keynote presentation at a 100th year anniversary
celebration of the Technological Institute of Denmark at Aalborg University
on October 3, 2006 and a seminar at Stanford University on November 3, 2006.

Biographical Sketch for Donald C. Cox

Donald C. Cox received the B. S., and M. S. degrees in Electrical
Engineering from the University of Nebraska in 1959 and 1960, respectively,
and the Ph.D. degree in Electrical Engineering from Stanford University in
1968. He received an Honorary Doctor of Science from the University of
Nebraska in 1983.

From 1960 to 1963, Mr. Cox did wireless communications system design at
Wright-Patterson AFB, Ohio. From 1963 to 1968 he was at Stanford University
doing research on tunnel diode amplifiers, on microwave propagation, and on
electronically steerable arrays that evolved into multi-sensor signal
processing for “smart” antennas. From 1968 to 1973 his research at Bell
Laboratories, Holmdel, New Jersey on mobile radio channels and on
high-capacity mobile radio systems provided important input to early
cellular mobile radio systems, and is continuing to contribute to the
evolution of digital cellular radio and other wireless systems. From 1973 to
1983 he was Supervisor of a group at Bell Laboratories that did innovative
propagation and system research for millimeter-wave satellite
communications. In 1978 he pioneered radio system and propagation research
for low-power wireless personal communications systems. At Bell Laboratories
in 1983 he organized and became Head of the Radio and Satellite Systems
Research Department that became a Division in Bell Communications Research
(Bellcore) in 1984 with him as Division Manager. It again became a
department in 1991 with him as Executive Director. At Bellcore he
championed, led, and contributed to research on all aspects of wireless
personal communications and wireless loops, including Universal Digital
Portable Communications (UDPC) and CDMA systems. He was instrumental in
evolving the extensive research into the U.S. Standard for the Wireless or
Personal Access Communications System (WACS or PACS). In September 1993 he
became a Professor of Electrical Engineering and Director of The Center for
Telecommunications at Stanford University where he started and continues to
pursue research and teaching of wireless communications. He was appointed
Harald Trap Friis Chair Professor of Engineering in 1994.

Dr. Cox is a member of the U.S. National Academy of Engineering, and is a
Fellow of the IEEE, the AAAS and the Radio Club of America. He was awarded
the IEEE 1993 Alexander Graham Bell Medal “For pioneering and leadership in
personal portable communications”; was a co-recipient of the 1983
International Marconi Prize in Electromagnetic Wave Propagation (Italy); and
received the Bellcore Fellow award in 1991, the IEEE 1985 Morris E. Leeds
Award, the IEEE Third Millennium Medal 2000, the IEEE Communications Society
1992 L. G. Abraham Prize Paper Award and 1990 Communications Magazine Prize
Paper Award, and the 1983 IEEE Vehicular Technology Society paper of the
year award. He received an Alumni Achievement Award from the University of
Nebraska in 2002. He is a member of Commissions B, C and F of USNC/URSI, was
an Associate Editor of the IEEE Transactions on Antennas and Propagation
(1983-86), was a member of the Administrative Committee of the IEEE Antennas
and Propagation Society (1986-88), and was a member of the URSI
Intercommission Group on Time Domain Waveform Measurements (1982-84). He is
author or coauthor of over 250 technical papers and conference
presentations, including many invited, and several keynote addresses, and
books. He has been granted 19 patents. Dr. Cox is a member of Sigma Xi,
Sigma Tau, Eta Kappa Nu and Phi Mu Epsilon, and is a Registered Professional
Engineer in Ohio and Nebraska.